Since Friday every hour I have been home I have glued to the news. Websites, forums, Twitter, text messages, 24 hour rolling news. I have been using the full power of my technology fueled existence to find out what's going on in a bizarre country which I have never visited, is thousands of miles from me, and to which I have no links or loyalty.
I am talking about Iran, ally-turned-ubernemesis of the United States. The Iranian election, such as it was, has clearly been rigged, any objective reading of the results bring up wonderful results like the 80% of British expats voting for Ahmadinejad (cos people leaving Iran are doing so cos they love the regime), 57% of people in Mousavi's home town (which is majority Azeri, the ethnic group Mousavi comes from) and so on and so forth. The fact that results started coming out just 2 hours after the vote closed in a country with such an incredibly poor infrastructure truly stretches credibility beyond all breaking point. In a way we are fortunate, anyone with a brain can rig an election. It takes someone truly incompetent to rig an election this obviously.
On Twitter I've followed about 7 or 8 Iranians the last couple of days. It is incredible to see the rage and passion of these people, and to hear the real human experiences of people taking part in the protests, but where can these protests take Iran?
In answering this question, we must understand Iran itself. Understanding the politics of any nation, must stem from an understanding of that nation. We cannot understand American politics without understanding the values on which America is built, and the divides within it. We cannot understand Africa without understanding the legacy of Empire.
Iranian civilisation is one of the most Ancient on this Earth, up there with China. Iran, until the 1930s was known by the name 'Persia', yes, them of the rugs, and the killing of Spartans in widely inaccurate movies. For much of its history Persian culture was truly great, providing the world with many technological advancements, and producing works of real beauty. Like China however Persia came to fall from Great Power status and while it was never fully turned into a part of any Empire (save for very brief periods) it was made the perpetual bitch of Empires everywhere. (Particularly the British and the Russians. Today in Iran, Brits are as hated as Yanks).
In 1953, the democratically elected Prime Minister of Iran, Mossadegh, decided to nationalise the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (now BP) which was part owned by the British government. Mossadegh wanted to keep the money from oil sales within Iranian territory as he felt the company unfairly profited from an Iranian resource (which it did). In a move of stupendous idiocy, the British and the Americans sponsored a coup by the monarch of Iran, the Shah, who then established a brutal and repressive dictatorship. After a couple of decades of this, 1979 hit, and uprose the Iranian people. The revolution was highly fractured to begin with, liberals, communists and islamists all united against the regime, but eventually it came under the sway of an Islamic Ayatollah called Khomeini, who crafted the Islamic Republic of Iran, the regime you now see before you.
Khomeini crafted the position of Supreme Leader for himself, and created a raft of institutitions ruled by clerics, as well as institutions that were 'democratically' elected. Candidates for these 'democratic' elections first have to be checked for suitability by the Guardian Council, who will happily veto any candidate who is not 'Islamic' enough.
This dual system has inherent contradictions to it. Iran is not a democracy but its system is fractious. Most Iranians had, until this election, genuine belief in their democracy.
There are several things to remember about Iran.
Firstly Iran is desperate to be respected. Not to be liked, but to be respected as the great pre-Islamic civilisation that it is. Iran's nuclear ambitions are part and parcel of this desire, nuclear power is a sign of technological advancement and it is Iran's way of declaring itself as an advanced civilisation. Even among the pro-Western youth we find support for Iran's nuclear programme. This also shows itself in Iran's attempts (however hamfisted) to convince foreigners of its respect for international law and the international system, and in its attempts to be an important regional player through its alliance with Syria and meddling in Iraq and the Lebanon.
Secondly, Iran has a massive demographic issue. 70% of the population is under 30, as they rapidly reach maturity they desire jobs, jobs the Iranian economy cannot produce, creating anger at the regime.
Thirdly, what we are watching is not national. There are no doubt disturbances elsewhere, but Ahmadinejad and the regime have their highest support among the poor in the rural countryside. The most active participants in these protests have been middle class students in Tehran. Ahmadinejad may well have won the election legitimately, he is deeply popular in some parts of Iranian society, particularly for his anti-poverty programme.
Fourthly, Mousavi is a regime man. He was Prime Minister during the war with Iraq in which he repressed people himself. He supports the nuclear programme. He is not a great beacon of liberalism come to turn Iran into a democracy. He is pro-Supreme Leader and pro-Regime. What Mousavi is offerring is a softer version of Iran, with women's rights, a more concilatory stance towards the US, and so on.
So what will happen next? Such talk is speculation, but hell its my blog and I'll do whatever the fuck I like.
At first my thinking was that this was going to be Iran's Tianenman Square. There are many similarities, student led protests in the capital, a repressive regime, cooperation with certain elements of the regime. However the problem with this idea became clear very quickly, Iran cares what other countries think, and wishes to legitimise itself to its people as a democracy. Becoming a harshly repressive regime will only convince more people of the failures of Iranian democracy.
Similarly however it seems, unlikely that the regime will be overthrown to me. While the regime is deeply unpopular in some quarters it is clear that it is extremely popular in others. There is not the mass hatred required, the security forces are all remaining extremely loyal it appears, there is no mass turning of politicians. Iran is not united one way or the other, but to break the regime a wider consensus is required in my eyes.
Therefore there are ultimately two likely results for me:
1. Things carry on as is. The ballots are 'recounted' (how you recount ballots that you've set fire to I'll never know, this suggests me a go at fraud again). Ahmadinejad is declared winner again, by a smaller margin, the protests peter out, without outside support and widespread internal support the ringleaders are locked up. Possibly Mousavi is offerred a job in Ahmadinejad's cabinet as an olive branch. Without direction, widespread support or a figurehead in Mousavi the protestors give up and return to their lives.
2. The ballots are 'recounted', Mousavi is declared the winner, or Ahmadinejad is declared the winner and the protests continue nonetheless until another election has to be held. There are reasons why a fraud could be committed to declare Mousavi the winner at this point, simply to stop the protestors on the most part. If another election is held Mousavi now has such moral authority that he would win easily. If Mousavi does become President it could swing either of two ways. Mousavi would not be the first reformist President, the President become Ahmadinejad, Khatami, was a reformist, who, alas, was blocked from reform by the religious institutions and blocked from dialog with the US by both Clinton and Bush administrations refusal to deal with Iran (a dire mistake). Mousavi could have the same kind of Presidency, officially in charge while blocked by the religious institutions, however Mousavi's high moral authority (particularly if he is elected in landslide) could pay off and force the clerics to listen to him. Or it could be somewhere between the two, who knows.
The regime isn't going to end. This is another step down the road for the Islamic Republic. It will end one day, all regimes eventually do, freedom is too attractive a cause. Iran's innate contradictions and tensions cannot last forever, but we are not on the cusp of that end yet. When it comes however, the newly freed citizens of Iran will look back to these protests, and be grateful, because however they go, they are an important step down the road, and even a single step is something.
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